The Big Twelve has a lot of positives going for it. It is a powerhouse in two major sports. Big Twelve basketball is almost as well respected as Big Twelve football. Teams like Kansas and Texas Tech have been basketball contenders on a regular basis. The problem with this is that Texas is a football state. Basketball is just something to keep them busy between national signing day and the spring football game. Unlike the Big East, The Big Twelve can not live on basketball alone.
Another positive for the survival of the Big Twelve is the state of Texas. Texas is football crazy. Only Alabama can compete with the level of attention that college football gets in Texas. Texas fans are going to bring in the numbers, but this is part of the problem. The University of Texas is easily the biggest team in the Big Twelve. They are so big that they just struck a television deal for a 300 million over the next 20 years. In a conference without TV revenue, sharing that is bad news. Baylor and Texas Tech will never see a dollar of that money, much less be able to form their own network. This means Texas is running the show.
The Big Twelve already lost Nebraska and Colorado this past year. If another school, possibly Texas A&M, were to leave too, the Big Twelve would collapse. Why would A&M leave? They might feel shut out by the Texas TV deal and want to find away to be able to compete. Since they would not be able to strike a deal the size of Texas', one way to compete would be to join a TV profit sharing conference. That being said, the Aggies have repeatedly stated their commitment to the Big Twelve. How long will that sentiment last in the face of a 300 million dollar richer Texas?
Another problem would be if Texas were to ever decide to go independent. That would be it for the conference. The TV deal assures that they are never going to go to the SEC or PAC 12, because they would be forced to share that money. The easiest scenario to imagine for Texas going independent is caused by Texas' regular season schedule. Texas schedule will now consist of Oklahoma, the Aggies, a bunch of losers, and no conference championship game. If an undefeated Texas, PAC 12 champ, and SEC champ are left after a season; guess who is going to the championship? As it stands right now, we think an undefeated Texas would need all the other conference champs to have one loss. Any two undefeated conference champs are going to jump over Texas. Texas is used to getting all the glory. They will not respond well to getting the TCU treatment. The outcry from their fans and supporters would be immense and it might push Texas to go independent. As an independent, Texas could set a schedule that might be more impressive to the BCS voters. There would be a risk in this too though. If Texas was to go independent, they would lose their automatic BCS bid, unless they can make some sort of Notre Dame arrangement.
There seem to be more and more plausible scenarios for the collapse of the Big Twelve with fewer and fewer teams left for its survival. As we head into the off season, we will have to wait and see, but the Big Twelve will most likely be around next year. Its long-term health looks much bleaker.
We have always wanted to be popular. So, why not throw us a bone?
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